December 2011 E-Mail Update

This is my 12/8/11 E-Mail Update. I send an Update out each month after the statistics for the preceding month have been posted on the Honolulu Board of Realtor’s website. If you want to be taken off the distribution list for our monthly E-Mail Update, hit reply and send me an e-mail stating that. Please include your first and last name to make it easier to identify you.

The following figures represent 11 months of data; they are year-to-date (January through November) of 2011 compared to 2010. Closed sales of houses 2,696 versus 2,745 (-1.8%); closed sales of condos 3,696 versus 3,624 (+2.0%); median (midway) sales price of houses $574,500 versus $595,000 (-3.4%); median sales price of condos $300,500 versus $305,000 (-1.5%).

Here is what some of the local economists are projecting for our housing market. Paul Brewbaker, former chief economist for the Bank of Hawaii is forecasting a general sideways movement in prices, persisting for a few years until robust economic growth returns. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) released a report last month predicting that the median sales price for houses on Oahu will rise 1.5% next year followed by an 8.5% gain in 2013. UHERO projects that the median sales price for condos will be flat next year then rise 3.5% in 2013. Economist Leroy Laney, professor of economics and finance at Hawaii Pacific University, in a mid-November address to First Hawaiian Bank’s 42nd Annual Business Outlook forum, said the local economy is “somewhat more downbeat” than he envisioned just a few months ago, due to possible ripple effect from the debt crisis in Europe and the United States’ own debt problems. “Even under the best circumstances the recovery will continue to be much slower than expected” according to Laney.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit has come and gone and with it some major traffic snarls. The international dignitaries had clear roads as they made their way to and from various events, as local traffic was kept off at least one side of freeways and major traffic arteries. In addition, for security purposes, freeway overpasses were kept clear of traffic much of the time. Although there was plenty of advanced warning of likely traffic problems, the disruptions still were significant with frequent backups into Waikiki throughout the week. Security for world leaders is understandable and obviously needed, however, the cement barriers placed throughout Waikiki and additional police controlling traffic restricted freedom of movement. In some areas, it was a healthy wait, at times, merely to cross a major street like Kalakaua or Kuhio Ave. Short-term profits that retailers hoped to reap from delegates becoming shoppers did not materialize.

On a positive note, the world’s attention did not get riveted on our 50th state for any problems or bad news such as a tsunami or a terrorist attack. All things considered, Hawaii appears to have handled itself quite well. There were 21 heads of state present. Of note, there was only one woman, Prime Minister Julia Gillard from Australia. For the group photograph, the men all wore dark suits rather than special aloha shirts made for the occasion by Tori Richard, Ltd. Apparently, there was some concern that aloha attire might avoid the appearance of world leaders acting frivolously during a time of economic austerity.

The Outdoor Circle has taken a new, hard-line stance against the city’s planned elevated rail system, calling the project the biggest threat to Oahu’s landscape in the group’s 100-year history. The organization’s board of directors initially believed that outright opposition elevated rail was not in the best interests of either Honolulu or the Outdoor Circle; however, they have now changed their position and are considering a lawsuit against the elevated rail.

In early November, UH received an anonymous letter alleging point shaving by unnamed members of the Warrior football team. The letter had a fabricated name and return address. UH did the right thing, immediately notifying both the Honolulu Police Department and the NCAA of the allegations. Every UH play to date has been reviewed with no evidence to support point shaving. In mid-November, the Honolulu Police Department stated that there wasn’t enough evidence to support a criminal investigation. UH gets its fair share of betting action. With its home games starting at 6:00 pm (Hawaii time) UH is usually the last college game Las Vegas gamblers can place wagers on. For some gamblers, it’s an opportunity to double up on a good day’s fortune; for others, it may represent a final stab at avoiding a loss. This has been a bad year to bet on UH, as they were 3-9-1 against the spread.

Getting an early Oscar buzz is The Descendants starring George Clooney. The movie is the story of Matt King, a Honolulu attorney suddenly forced to deal with a failed marriage, his wife in a coma and two rebellious daughters. King, played be Clooney, is a descendant of Native Hawaiian Royalty whose status among the landed elite provided him wealth and standing as soon as he was born. The director of the movie is Alexander Payne who brought Santa Barbara’s wine country to life in his marvelous 2004 movie “Sideways” earning him an Oscar. From the Honolulu Star-Advertiser movie critic: “This deceptively breezy film is a kind of wonderful journey though the shifting landscape of human emotion, ranging from the deliciously awkward comedy to heartfelt, transformative tragedy and all points in between.”

The Rainbow Wahine volleyball team advanced in the NCAA tournament and is now headed for the Regional that will be held in Hawaii this coming weekend. The Wahine feature senior All-American Kanani Danielson who is considered to be the best all-around player in coach Dave Shoji’s 37 years to ever don a Rainbow uniform. The Kamehameha Schools product has carried Hawaii on her shoulders all season long with 20 double-doubles in 31 games.

This was a difficult, trying season for the UH football team. Early favorites to win the WAC in what was to be their last WAC season, UH was plagued by injuries including the loss of their star quarterback Bryant Moniz (broken leg) who was selected as the WAC offensive player of the year in preseason balloting. UH went into their final game against Brigham Young with a 6-6 record but lost 41 to 20 despite being ahead 13 to 10 at half-time. BYU scored 28 unanswered points in the third quarter. The loss to BYU removed the team from post-season bowl eligibility.

I’ve had season tickets to the UH home games for years and watch the away games on TV. This was probably the most frustrating season I’ve witnessed, as UH should have won the WAC. UH lost several WAC games where they were the favorite. Injuries are part of the game, and UH certainly had their fair share plus; e.g., having to start their third string QB, activating a freshman red-shirt wide out and then having to start him, etc. UH has been fortunate to have recently had three excellent quarterbacks: Colt Brennan, Timmy Chang and Bryant Moniz, all of whom received national attention; e.g., last year, Moniz led the nation in both passing yards and TD passes. An ongoing discussion has been do gifted receivers make the QB or is it vice versa. Last year, UH had three of their skill players selected in the NFL draft. Had Bryant Moniz not gotten hurt and had one or two of those NFL-selected skill players been available to play this year, the UH season, in my opinion, would have been entirely different.

The UH backup QB is a senior as is Bryant Moniz. Their third-string QB is a sophomore, David Graves, who will likely run the offense next year. However, it will not be for Coach Greg McMackin (66) who was let go following the BYU game. McMackin’s four-year record at UH was 29-25 with two-bowl games; he had one year remaining on his $1.1 million contract. The average attendance at UH home games this season was 28,195, a 21% decline from the season before McMackin took over.

This year’s wins and losses:

Colorado 9/3 W 34-17;

Washington 9/10 L 40-32;

UNLV 9/17 L 40-20;

UC Davis 9/24 W 56-14;

Louisiana Tech 10/1 W 44-26;

San Jose State 10/14 L 28-27;

New Mexico State 10/22 W 45-34;

Idaho 10/29 W 16-14;

Utah State 11/5 L 35-31;

Nevada 11/12 L 42-28;

Fresno State 11/19 L 24-21;

Tulane 11/26 W 35-23;

BYU 12/3 L 41-20.

Last but certainly not least, here are some marvelous photographs of Old Hawaii:

http://www.honolulumagazine.com/Honolulu-Magazine/November-2011/Photo-Essay-20th-Century-Honolulu/